Recent forecast guidance for Mexico City on June 30 points to a daily maximum near 22–24°C, reflecting the seasonal transition into the rainy period with increased afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers that cap daytime heating. High-altitude location (roughly 2,240 m) and typical June climatology keep baselines around 24–25°C, yet current model consensus shows modest cooling from enhanced moisture and reduced insolation compared with earlier in the month. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23–25°C outcomes because small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can easily move the observed high by 1–2°C, while official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and short-range ensembles remain the key data releases that will resolve the market.