National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$150,323 Vol.
$150,323 Vol.
2026/05/01
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$150,323 Vol.
$150,323 Vol.
2026/05/01
53°F or below
$2,959 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$4,402 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$9,080 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$9,960 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$17,869 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$19,769 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$35,123 Vol.
Yes
66-67°F
$22,182 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$14,435 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$5,364 Vol.
No
72°F or higher
$9,179 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$150,323終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$150,323終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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