Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,436 Vol.
$21,436 Vol.
2026/05/01
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,436 Vol.
$21,436 Vol.
2026/05/01
23°C or below
$1,903 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,885 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,337 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,758 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,941 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,333 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$1,359 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,915 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,631 Vol.
No
32°C
$506 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$867 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
音量
$21,436終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$21,436終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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