Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
74°F or higher 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$20,389 Vol.
$20,389 Vol.
2026/05/04
55°F or below
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
Yes
74°F or higher 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$20,389 Vol.
$20,389 Vol.
2026/05/04
55°F or below
$1,124 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$280 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$391 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$378 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$486 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$834 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,275 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,214 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$2,360 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$6,142 Vol.
No
74°F or higher
$5,905 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$20,389終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$20,389終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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