Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 Vol.
$73,420 Vol.
2026/05/06
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 Vol.
$73,420 Vol.
2026/05/06
22°C or below
$856 Vol.
No
23°C
$476 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,021 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,521 Vol.
No
26°C
$24,842 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$10,805 Vol.
No
28°C
$18,846 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,326 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,236 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,427 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,064 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
音量
$73,420終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$73,420終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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