Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 7 will most likely reach 25–26 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow under partly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating from solar insolation. These closely matched market probabilities reflect genuine model spread in the timing of a weak frontal passage and variable boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology for the city centers near 23–24 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but well below recent heatwave extremes. Updated model runs and official Institute of Meteorology and Water Management guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the outcome range before resolution.