Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$113,038 Vol.
$113,038 Vol.
2026/04/19
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$113,038 Vol.
$113,038 Vol.
2026/04/19
11°C or below
$8,400 Vol.
No
12°C
$5,879 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,544 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,609 Vol.
No
15°C
$9,405 Vol.
No
16°C
$30,766 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$21,162 Vol.
No
18°C
$11,673 Vol.
No
19°C
$10,458 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,515 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$4,625 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$113,038終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$113,038終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問