Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20％未満 27%
20〜25％ 21%
25〜30％ 19%
30〜35％ 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
20％未満
27%
20〜25％
21%
25〜30％
19%
30〜35％
17%
35〜40％
15%
40％以上
12%
20％未満 27%
20〜25％ 21%
25〜30％ 19%
30〜35％ 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
20％未満
$19 Vol.
27%
20〜25％
$39 Vol.
21%
25〜30％
$39 Vol.
19%
30〜35％
$58 Vol.
17%
35〜40％
$19 Vol.
15%
40％以上
$39 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
音量
$213終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
音量
$213終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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