Recent UK CPI prints, including 2.6% in June and 2.9% in July 2026, combined with Bank of England projections for a near-term rise to around 3.2% in Q4 driven by energy-price pass-through from Middle East tensions, underpin the tight contest between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.0–2.4% bins. Geopolitical volatility has lifted near-term inflation expectations and shifted the implied rate path higher than earlier 2026 forecasts, while easing core pressures, softening labor demand, and a 3.75% Bank Rate continue to support downside risks. Independent forecasters cluster around 3.1–3.3% for the year, yet the dispersion in outcomes reflects uncertainty over the duration of energy effects versus potential further disinflation. Traders are therefore balancing confirmed data releases against forward-looking catalysts such as upcoming ONS prints and MPC communications ahead of the December 2026 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.5~3.9% 27.4%
2.0~2.4% 24.2%
2.5〜2.9% 10.8%
4.5%以上 8%
$91,092 Vol.
$91,092 Vol.
1.0%未満
<1%
1.0~1.4%
3%
1.5~1.9%
5%
2.0~2.4%
24%
2.5〜2.9%
11%
3.0~3.4%
-
3.5~3.9%
27%
4.0〜4.4%
2%
4.5%以上
8%
3.5~3.9% 27.4%
2.0~2.4% 24.2%
2.5〜2.9% 10.8%
4.5%以上 8%
$91,092 Vol.
$91,092 Vol.
1.0%未満
<1%
1.0~1.4%
3%
1.5~1.9%
5%
2.0~2.4%
24%
2.5〜2.9%
11%
3.0~3.4%
-
3.5~3.9%
27%
4.0〜4.4%
2%
4.5%以上
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI prints, including 2.6% in June and 2.9% in July 2026, combined with Bank of England projections for a near-term rise to around 3.2% in Q4 driven by energy-price pass-through from Middle East tensions, underpin the tight contest between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.0–2.4% bins. Geopolitical volatility has lifted near-term inflation expectations and shifted the implied rate path higher than earlier 2026 forecasts, while easing core pressures, softening labor demand, and a 3.75% Bank Rate continue to support downside risks. Independent forecasters cluster around 3.1–3.3% for the year, yet the dispersion in outcomes reflects uncertainty over the duration of energy effects versus potential further disinflation. Traders are therefore balancing confirmed data releases against forward-looking catalysts such as upcoming ONS prints and MPC communications ahead of the December 2026 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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