Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0~1.0% 66.7%
1.0〜2.0% 25%
0%未満 4.2%
4.0~5.0% <1%
$28,966 Vol.
$28,966 Vol.
0%未満
4%
0~1.0%
67%
1.0〜2.0%
25%
2.0〜3.0%
<1%
3.0〜4.0%
<1%
4.0~5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0~7.0%
1%
7.0%以上
<1%
0~1.0% 66.7%
1.0〜2.0% 25%
0%未満 4.2%
4.0~5.0% <1%
$28,966 Vol.
$28,966 Vol.
0%未満
4%
0~1.0%
67%
1.0〜2.0%
25%
2.0〜3.0%
<1%
3.0〜4.0%
<1%
4.0~5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0~7.0%
1%
7.0%以上
<1%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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