Recent ECB staff projections place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, reflecting modest upward revisions from June amid resilient Q2 data and positive survey indicators that offset Middle East-related energy price pressures. The closely matched market-implied odds between the 0-1.0% and 1.0-2.0% ranges capture ongoing uncertainty around the shock's duration, with risks to the downside for activity if energy costs persist and to the upside if fiscal support and export momentum strengthen further. Monetary policy tightening, including the September 25 basis point rate increase to 2.50% on the deposit facility, alongside labor market conditions and competitiveness challenges, remain key swing factors influencing trader consensus on whether growth settles below or above the 1% threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0～1.0％ 48.0%
1.0〜2.0％ 45%
0％未満 3.1%
2.0〜3.0％ <1%
$53,835 Vol.
$53,835 Vol.
2027/01/31
0％未満
3%
0～1.0％
48%
1.0〜2.0％
45%
2.0〜3.0％
<1%
3.0〜4.0％
<1%
4.0～5.0％
<1%
5.0-6.0％
<1%
6.0～7.0％
<1%
7.0％以上
<1%
0～1.0％ 48.0%
1.0〜2.0％ 45%
0％未満 3.1%
2.0〜3.0％ <1%
$53,835 Vol.
$53,835 Vol.
2027/01/31
0％未満
$2,837 Vol.
3%
0～1.0％
$17,612 Vol.
48%
1.0〜2.0％
$16,632 Vol.
45%
2.0〜3.0％
$2,308 Vol.
<1%
3.0〜4.0％
$2,212 Vol.
<1%
4.0～5.0％
$3,338 Vol.
<1%
5.0-6.0％
$2,290 Vol.
<1%
6.0～7.0％
$3,762 Vol.
<1%
7.0％以上
$2,844 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, reflecting modest upward revisions from June amid resilient Q2 data and positive survey indicators that offset Middle East-related energy price pressures. The closely matched market-implied odds between the 0-1.0% and 1.0-2.0% ranges capture ongoing uncertainty around the shock's duration, with risks to the downside for activity if energy costs persist and to the upside if fiscal support and export momentum strengthen further. Monetary policy tightening, including the September 25 basis point rate increase to 2.50% on the deposit facility, alongside labor market conditions and competitiveness challenges, remain key swing factors influencing trader consensus on whether growth settles below or above the 1% threshold.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$53,835終了日
2027/02/01マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, reflecting modest upward revisions from June amid resilient Q2 data and positive survey indicators that offset Middle East-related energy price pressures. The closely matched market-implied odds between the 0-1.0% and 1.0-2.0% ranges capture ongoing uncertainty around the shock's duration, with risks to the downside for activity if energy costs persist and to the upside if fiscal support and export momentum strengthen further. Monetary policy tightening, including the September 25 basis point rate increase to 2.50% on the deposit facility, alongside labor market conditions and competitiveness challenges, remain key swing factors influencing trader consensus on whether growth settles below or above the 1% threshold.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$53,835終了日
2027/02/01マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, reflecting modest upward revisions from June amid resilient Q2 data and positive survey indicators that offset Middle East-related energy price pressures. The closely matched market-implied odds between the 0-1.0% and 1.0-2.0% ranges capture ongoing uncertainty around the shock's duration, with risks to the downside for activity if energy costs persist and to the upside if fiscal support and export momentum strengthen further. Monetary policy tightening, including the September 25 basis point rate increase to 2.50% on the deposit facility, alongside labor market conditions and competitiveness challenges, remain key swing factors influencing trader consensus on whether growth settles below or above the 1% threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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