The contest to replace Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October centres on Labour’s ability to retain a strong share against a focused Green challenge led by Zack Polanski. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is Labour’s candidate, benefiting from the party’s recent local strength and the early impact of Andy Burnham’s leadership, which traders see as limiting further erosion from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. Green support has risen sharply since the May local elections, aided by endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein’s, yet remains concentrated enough that Labour’s vote is projected in the mid-to-high 30s by current models. With 15 candidates on the ballot, fragmentation among smaller parties and variable turnout among Labour-leaning voters are viewed as the main variables that could push the result toward the 40-45% band currently priced highest by traders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40～45％ 34%
35～40％ 22%
45〜50％ 17%
50％以上 16%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
30％未満
11%
30～35％
12%
35～40％
22%
40～45％
34%
45〜50％
17%
50％以上
16%
40～45％ 34%
35～40％ 22%
45〜50％ 17%
50％以上 16%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
30％未満
$77 Vol.
11%
30～35％
$76 Vol.
12%
35～40％
$87 Vol.
22%
40～45％
$232 Vol.
34%
45〜50％
$116 Vol.
17%
50％以上
$208 Vol.
16%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest to replace Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October centres on Labour’s ability to retain a strong share against a focused Green challenge led by Zack Polanski. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is Labour’s candidate, benefiting from the party’s recent local strength and the early impact of Andy Burnham’s leadership, which traders see as limiting further erosion from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. Green support has risen sharply since the May local elections, aided by endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein’s, yet remains concentrated enough that Labour’s vote is projected in the mid-to-high 30s by current models. With 15 candidates on the ballot, fragmentation among smaller parties and variable turnout among Labour-leaning voters are viewed as the main variables that could push the result toward the 40-45% band currently priced highest by traders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
音量
$796終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest to replace Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October centres on Labour’s ability to retain a strong share against a focused Green challenge led by Zack Polanski. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is Labour’s candidate, benefiting from the party’s recent local strength and the early impact of Andy Burnham’s leadership, which traders see as limiting further erosion from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. Green support has risen sharply since the May local elections, aided by endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein’s, yet remains concentrated enough that Labour’s vote is projected in the mid-to-high 30s by current models. With 15 candidates on the ballot, fragmentation among smaller parties and variable turnout among Labour-leaning voters are viewed as the main variables that could push the result toward the 40-45% band currently priced highest by traders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
音量
$796終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The contest to replace Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October centres on Labour’s ability to retain a strong share against a focused Green challenge led by Zack Polanski. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is Labour’s candidate, benefiting from the party’s recent local strength and the early impact of Andy Burnham’s leadership, which traders see as limiting further erosion from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. Green support has risen sharply since the May local elections, aided by endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein’s, yet remains concentrated enough that Labour’s vote is projected in the mid-to-high 30s by current models. With 15 candidates on the ballot, fragmentation among smaller parties and variable turnout among Labour-leaning voters are viewed as the main variables that could push the result toward the 40-45% band currently priced highest by traders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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