Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 Vol.
$28,340 Vol.
2026/05/05
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 Vol.
$28,340 Vol.
2026/05/05
11°C or below
$5,135 Vol.
No
12°C
$5,849 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,942 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,017 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,040 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$1,925 Vol.
No
17°C
$515 Vol.
No
18°C
$526 Vol.
No
19°C
$688 Vol.
No
20°C
$860 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$844 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
音量
$28,340終了日
2026/05/05マーケット開始日
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,340終了日
2026/05/05マーケット開始日
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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