US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced limited progress, with recent Ukrainian proposals for an Easter ceasefire and reciprocal halt to energy infrastructure attacks dismissed by Moscow as premature amid ongoing drone barrages and frontline escalations. Zelenskiy reports Kyiv's strongest defensive positions in 10 months, thwarting Russian advances, yet Kremlin demands for Donbas territorial concessions clash with Ukrainian resistance, stalling negotiations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes reflects this competitive balance, weighing diplomatic momentum—including potential new US-brokered rounds—against persistent military actions. Battlefield breakthroughs, shifts in Western aid, or compromise on security guarantees could tip odds toward resolution or prolongation by end-2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
新規
新規
2027/12/31
新規
新規
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced limited progress, with recent Ukrainian proposals for an Easter ceasefire and reciprocal halt to energy infrastructure attacks dismissed by Moscow as premature amid ongoing drone barrages and frontline escalations. Zelenskiy reports Kyiv's strongest defensive positions in 10 months, thwarting Russian advances, yet Kremlin demands for Donbas territorial concessions clash with Ukrainian resistance, stalling negotiations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes reflects this competitive balance, weighing diplomatic momentum—including potential new US-brokered rounds—against persistent military actions. Battlefield breakthroughs, shifts in Western aid, or compromise on security guarantees could tip odds toward resolution or prolongation by end-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$3,852終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced limited progress, with recent Ukrainian proposals for an Easter ceasefire and reciprocal halt to energy infrastructure attacks dismissed by Moscow as premature amid ongoing drone barrages and frontline escalations. Zelenskiy reports Kyiv's strongest defensive positions in 10 months, thwarting Russian advances, yet Kremlin demands for Donbas territorial concessions clash with Ukrainian resistance, stalling negotiations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes reflects this competitive balance, weighing diplomatic momentum—including potential new US-brokered rounds—against persistent military actions. Battlefield breakthroughs, shifts in Western aid, or compromise on security guarantees could tip odds toward resolution or prolongation by end-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$3,852終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced limited progress, with recent Ukrainian proposals for an Easter ceasefire and reciprocal halt to energy infrastructure attacks dismissed by Moscow as premature amid ongoing drone barrages and frontline escalations. Zelenskiy reports Kyiv's strongest defensive positions in 10 months, thwarting Russian advances, yet Kremlin demands for Donbas territorial concessions clash with Ukrainian resistance, stalling negotiations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes reflects this competitive balance, weighing diplomatic momentum—including potential new US-brokered rounds—against persistent military actions. Battlefield breakthroughs, shifts in Western aid, or compromise on security guarantees could tip odds toward resolution or prolongation by end-2027.
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