Ongoing martial law in Ukraine, extended into late 2026, prohibits national referendums and elections under current law, while any peace framework addressing territorial changes requires a sustained ceasefire, secure access for displaced voters and overseas troops, and logistical preparations that traders view as incompatible with the remaining timeline. Diplomatic efforts through mid-2026 produced no territorial or security consensus acceptable to both sides, leaving talks stalled despite U.S. mediation and intermittent proposals. This structural and diplomatic impasse underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against passage before 2027. A rapid breakthrough yielding an accepted deal and referendum in late 2026, or a major battlefield shift prompting renewed negotiations, remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome.