Recent polling from state-linked firms like FOM and VCIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the nationwide party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 Duma elections, with independent surveys such as ExtremeScan showing similar results near or slightly below the 5% threshold. SR, led by Sergey Mironov, has positioned itself as a pro-war systemic opposition force emphasizing veteran support and social measures while competing for Kremlin-aligned voters alongside parties like the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Analysts note the party's weakened organizational base and historical reliance on administrative factors or single-member constituency results to clear the barrier in a tightly managed electoral system. Trader pricing at 57% for clearing the threshold reflects this narrow polling band and uncertainty over final vote allocation in the three-day voting period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
57% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
はい
57% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-linked firms like FOM and VCIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the nationwide party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 Duma elections, with independent surveys such as ExtremeScan showing similar results near or slightly below the 5% threshold. SR, led by Sergey Mironov, has positioned itself as a pro-war systemic opposition force emphasizing veteran support and social measures while competing for Kremlin-aligned voters alongside parties like the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Analysts note the party's weakened organizational base and historical reliance on administrative factors or single-member constituency results to clear the barrier in a tightly managed electoral system. Trader pricing at 57% for clearing the threshold reflects this narrow polling band and uncertainty over final vote allocation in the three-day voting period.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-linked firms like FOM and VCIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the nationwide party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 Duma elections, with independent surveys such as ExtremeScan showing similar results near or slightly below the 5% threshold. SR, led by Sergey Mironov, has positioned itself as a pro-war systemic opposition force emphasizing veteran support and social measures while competing for Kremlin-aligned voters alongside parties like the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Analysts note the party's weakened organizational base and historical reliance on administrative factors or single-member constituency results to clear the barrier in a tightly managed electoral system. Trader pricing at 57% for clearing the threshold reflects this narrow polling band and uncertainty over final vote allocation in the three-day voting period.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from state-linked firms like FOM and VCIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the nationwide party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 Duma elections, with independent surveys such as ExtremeScan showing similar results near or slightly below the 5% threshold. SR, led by Sergey Mironov, has positioned itself as a pro-war systemic opposition force emphasizing veteran support and social measures while competing for Kremlin-aligned voters alongside parties like the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Analysts note the party's weakened organizational base and historical reliance on administrative factors or single-member constituency results to clear the barrier in a tightly managed electoral system. Trader pricing at 57% for clearing the threshold reflects this narrow polling band and uncertainty over final vote allocation in the three-day voting period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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