The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日143未満 22%
163以上 20%
148〜152 17%
158～162 16%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
143未満
22%
143〜147
12%
148〜152
17%
153〜157
10%
158～162
16%
163以上
20%
143未満 22%
163以上 20%
148〜152 17%
158～162 16%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
143未満
$0 Vol.
22%
143〜147
$23 Vol.
12%
148〜152
$0 Vol.
17%
153〜157
$0 Vol.
10%
158～162
$0 Vol.
16%
163以上
$0 Vol.
20%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
音量
$23終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$23終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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