Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range amid 3.4% inflation and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions, represent the dominant driver of S&P 500 sentiment for year-end levels. Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 5% have weighed on valuations, contributing to volatility after the S&P traded around 7,650–7,688 in mid-September despite 14–15% year-to-date gains. Strong Q2 earnings growth exceeding 25% year-over-year and resilient labor data at 4.1% unemployment provide support, yet market-implied probabilities for higher December thresholds remain subdued due to expectations of additional tightening. Key near-term catalysts include October CPI and jobs releases plus the October 28 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the policy path versus earnings momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$373,100 Vol.
2026/12/31
↑ $10,000
3%
↑ 9,300ドル
5%
↑ $9,000
11%
↑ 8,600ドル
9%
↑ 8,200ドル
27%
↑ $8,000
48%
↓ $7,400
66%
↓ $7,200
43%
↓ $7,000
25%
↓ 6,200ドル
12%
↓ $6,000
9%
↓ 5,800ドル
7%
↓ 5,200ドル
4%
↓ 4,500ドル
4%
$373,100 Vol.
↑ $10,000
$446 Vol.
3%
↑ 9,300ドル
$10,126 Vol.
5%
↑ $9,000
$138 Vol.
11%
↑ 8,600ドル
$31,971 Vol.
9%
↑ 8,200ドル
$23,939 Vol.
27%
↑ $8,000
$583 Vol.
48%
↓ $7,400
$81 Vol.
66%
↓ $7,200
$415 Vol.
43%
↓ $7,000
$2,128 Vol.
25%
↓ 6,200ドル
$60,941 Vol.
12%
↓ $6,000
$4,961 Vol.
9%
↓ 5,800ドル
$44,511 Vol.
7%
↓ 5,200ドル
$70,295 Vol.
4%
↓ 4,500ドル
$62,517 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range amid 3.4% inflation and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions, represent the dominant driver of S&P 500 sentiment for year-end levels. Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 5% have weighed on valuations, contributing to volatility after the S&P traded around 7,650–7,688 in mid-September despite 14–15% year-to-date gains. Strong Q2 earnings growth exceeding 25% year-over-year and resilient labor data at 4.1% unemployment provide support, yet market-implied probabilities for higher December thresholds remain subdued due to expectations of additional tightening. Key near-term catalysts include October CPI and jobs releases plus the October 28 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the policy path versus earnings momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
音量
$373,100終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range amid 3.4% inflation and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions, represent the dominant driver of S&P 500 sentiment for year-end levels. Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 5% have weighed on valuations, contributing to volatility after the S&P traded around 7,650–7,688 in mid-September despite 14–15% year-to-date gains. Strong Q2 earnings growth exceeding 25% year-over-year and resilient labor data at 4.1% unemployment provide support, yet market-implied probabilities for higher December thresholds remain subdued due to expectations of additional tightening. Key near-term catalysts include October CPI and jobs releases plus the October 28 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the policy path versus earnings momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
音量
$373,100終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ETRecent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range amid 3.4% inflation and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions, represent the dominant driver of S&P 500 sentiment for year-end levels. Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 5% have weighed on valuations, contributing to volatility after the S&P traded around 7,650–7,688 in mid-September despite 14–15% year-to-date gains. Strong Q2 earnings growth exceeding 25% year-over-year and resilient labor data at 4.1% unemployment provide support, yet market-implied probabilities for higher December thresholds remain subdued due to expectations of additional tightening. Key near-term catalysts include October CPI and jobs releases plus the October 28 FOMC meeting, which will clarify the policy path versus earnings momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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