**No vacancy is the market favorite at 76.5% because the justices most likely to create one have publicly or through sources ruled out retirement in 2026.** Justice Samuel Alito, 76, directly stated in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he is “here for another term,” dismissing earlier speculation triggered by a retracted June NPR report. Sources close to Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, have similarly indicated he plans to stay, consistent with his hiring of clerks for future terms. Chief Justice John Roberts has also signaled continuity. The traditional late-June/early-July retirement window passed without announcements, removing the primary catalyst for a 2026 opening. With roughly three-and-a-half months remaining in the year as of mid-September, traders assign only modest probability to unforeseen events such as health-related departures. The current pricing therefore reflects the absence of confirmed exit signals from the sitting justices and the low baseline rate of mid-year vacancies absent prior notice.