Justin Pearson leads the Democratic primary for Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District at 80.5% implied probability following longtime U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen’s withdrawal after May 2026 redistricting that expanded the Memphis-based seat into more competitive territory. Pearson, a state representative, has secured endorsements from a majority of Tennessee House Democrats and is actively campaigning across the redrawn district. DeVante Hill, a community activist, holds 11.2% as the main remaining challenger, while Cohen remains priced at 3.5% despite exiting the race. The August 6 primary will determine the nominee under the new map, with trader consensus reflecting Pearson’s institutional support and name recognition among Democratic voters.