Justin Pearson holds an 81% implied probability in the TN-09 Democratic primary due to his established name recognition as a state representative, strong fundraising, and multiple high-profile endorsements following Rep. Steve Cohen’s mid-May withdrawal. Cohen, the longtime incumbent, exited the race after Republican-led redistricting altered district lines, removing him from the heavily Democratic Memphis-based seat he had held for nearly two decades. DeVante Hill, a community activist, remains a distant second at under 11% amid a field that also includes other lesser-known challengers. The August 6 primary will determine the Democratic nominee in a contest shaped by recent map changes and generational shifts within the party.