**Redistricting transformed Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District from a long-held Democratic seat into a Republican-leaning district.** The Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map in May 2026 that split the Memphis-area majority-Black district, reducing its Black population share from roughly 61% to 31% and giving it an R+9 to R+15 baseline. The revised lines produced a 21-point Trump margin in 2024 presidential voting. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired rather than run under the new boundaries. In the August 6, 2026 primaries, Republicans nominated state Senator Brent Taylor (endorsed by President Trump), while Democrats chose state Representative Justin Pearson. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. These structural changes—combined with the district’s new partisan composition and the absence of an incumbent—account for the strong Republican edge in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant late developments have altered the fundamentals since the primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,119 Vol.
$35,119 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
86%
民主党
16%
$35,119 Vol.
$35,119 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$21,220 Vol.
86%
民主党
$13,899 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting transformed Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District from a long-held Democratic seat into a Republican-leaning district.** The Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map in May 2026 that split the Memphis-area majority-Black district, reducing its Black population share from roughly 61% to 31% and giving it an R+9 to R+15 baseline. The revised lines produced a 21-point Trump margin in 2024 presidential voting.
Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired rather than run under the new boundaries. In the August 6, 2026 primaries, Republicans nominated state Senator Brent Taylor (endorsed by President Trump), while Democrats chose state Representative Justin Pearson. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican.
These structural changes—combined with the district’s new partisan composition and the absence of an incumbent—account for the strong Republican edge in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant late developments have altered the fundamentals since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$35,119終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting transformed Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District from a long-held Democratic seat into a Republican-leaning district.** The Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map in May 2026 that split the Memphis-area majority-Black district, reducing its Black population share from roughly 61% to 31% and giving it an R+9 to R+15 baseline. The revised lines produced a 21-point Trump margin in 2024 presidential voting.
Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired rather than run under the new boundaries. In the August 6, 2026 primaries, Republicans nominated state Senator Brent Taylor (endorsed by President Trump), while Democrats chose state Representative Justin Pearson. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican.
These structural changes—combined with the district’s new partisan composition and the absence of an incumbent—account for the strong Republican edge in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant late developments have altered the fundamentals since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,119終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Redistricting transformed Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District from a long-held Democratic seat into a Republican-leaning district.** The Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map in May 2026 that split the Memphis-area majority-Black district, reducing its Black population share from roughly 61% to 31% and giving it an R+9 to R+15 baseline. The revised lines produced a 21-point Trump margin in 2024 presidential voting. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired rather than run under the new boundaries. In the August 6, 2026 primaries, Republicans nominated state Senator Brent Taylor (endorsed by President Trump), while Democrats chose state Representative Justin Pearson. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. These structural changes—combined with the district’s new partisan composition and the absence of an incumbent—account for the strong Republican edge in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election. No significant late developments have altered the fundamentals since the primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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