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icon for トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者
世界·トンガ

トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者

icon for トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者
世界·トンガ

トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者

レイ・パアシ 28%

シオネ・ハーバード・トゥポウニウア 27%

サミュエラ・ヴェア 26%

モウヌ・ウアイセレ 25%

Polymarket
新規

レイ・パアシ 28%

シオネ・ハーバード・トゥポウニウア 27%

サミュエラ・ヴェア 26%

モウヌ・ウアイセレ 25%

Polymarket
新規

レイ・パアシ

$29 Vol.

28%

シオネ・ハーバード・トゥポウニウア

$29 Vol.

27%

サミュエラ・ヴェア

$29 Vol.

26%

モウヌ・ウアイセレ

$29 Vol.

25%

メレ・テウシビ・アマナキ

$29 Vol.

25%

マラカイ・マタフォヌアフォウ・オファ・キ・ワカワカ・コロアマタンギ

$29 Vol.

24%

アルビン・ラフ・シカ

$29 Vol.

22%

イライサ・レポロ・タウニシラ

$29 Vol.

22%

オリオニ・マノア

$29 Vol.

18%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election on October 8 features nine registered candidates after nominations closed September 2–3, following the court-ordered unseating of prior MP Semisi Sika over 2025 electoral expense violations. In Tonga’s first-past-the-post system for people’s representatives, the crowded field—spanning villages like Kolofo’ou and Haveluloto—has fragmented support, with no single contender securing broad consolidation. Lei Paasi holds the narrowest trader edge at 28% amid local campaign momentum, while Sione Harvard Tupouniua, Samiuela Vea, and others cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, reflecting village networks, limited time for voter outreach, and withdrawals that consolidated behind figures like Malakai Koloamatangi. Absent a dominant former incumbent such as ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and last-minute alliances before polling.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
音量
$262
終了日
2026/10/08
マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election on October 8 features nine registered candidates after nominations closed September 2–3, following the court-ordered unseating of prior MP Semisi Sika over 2025 electoral expense violations. In Tonga’s first-past-the-post system for people’s representatives, the crowded field—spanning villages like Kolofo’ou and Haveluloto—has fragmented support, with no single contender securing broad consolidation. Lei Paasi holds the narrowest trader edge at 28% amid local campaign momentum, while Sione Harvard Tupouniua, Samiuela Vea, and others cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, reflecting village networks, limited time for voter outreach, and withdrawals that consolidated behind figures like Malakai Koloamatangi. Absent a dominant former incumbent such as ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and last-minute alliances before polling.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
音量
$262
終了日
2026/10/08
マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...

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よくある質問

「トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「レイ・パアシ」で28%、次いで「シオネ・ハーバード・トゥポウニウア」が27%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、28¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に28%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Sep 9, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「レイ・パアシ」で28%であり、市場がこの結果に28%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「シオネ・ハーバード・トゥポウニウア」で27%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トンガタプ2補欠選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。