Recent polling for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election shows National support slipping to the low 30s or below in several surveys while Labour has narrowed or overtaken the gap, producing a tight contest for first place under the MMP system. Traders assign National a 60 percent implied probability of finishing second because the party remains the largest in the governing coalition and retains a broad base despite cost-of-living pressures and leadership fatigue. Labour sits at 40 percent as it consolidates opposition votes and benefits from recent poll gains, though smaller parties such as New Zealand First, the Greens, and ACT continue to fragment the remainder of the vote. The race remains sensitive to further shifts in economic sentiment and campaign momentum ahead of election day.