Recent polling shows a tight contest between the National Party and Labour Party for the largest vote share ahead of the November 2026 general election, with National often leading or within a few points of Labour in aggregates around 29-32% versus 25-34%. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring National for second place at 53%, as it remains the stronger contender to finish first, while Labour sits at 41.5% for second amid gains in several August surveys. Minor parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori trail well behind in the low teens or single digits, limiting their prospects for runner-up status. Recent developments such as Christopher Luxon's survival of a party leadership challenge and the rise of the Opportunity Party have added volatility but not altered the core two-party dynamic driving these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,846 Vol.
$17,846 Vol.
2026/11/07
National Party
53%
Labour Party
42%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,846 Vol.
$17,846 Vol.
2026/11/07
National Party
$8,811 Vol.
53%
Labour Party
$4,789 Vol.
42%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 Vol.
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,199 Vol.
1%
Green Party
$542 Vol.
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling shows a tight contest between the National Party and Labour Party for the largest vote share ahead of the November 2026 general election, with National often leading or within a few points of Labour in aggregates around 29-32% versus 25-34%. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring National for second place at 53%, as it remains the stronger contender to finish first, while Labour sits at 41.5% for second amid gains in several August surveys. Minor parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori trail well behind in the low teens or single digits, limiting their prospects for runner-up status. Recent developments such as Christopher Luxon's survival of a party leadership challenge and the rise of the Opportunity Party have added volatility but not altered the core two-party dynamic driving these probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
音量
$17,846終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling shows a tight contest between the National Party and Labour Party for the largest vote share ahead of the November 2026 general election, with National often leading or within a few points of Labour in aggregates around 29-32% versus 25-34%. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring National for second place at 53%, as it remains the stronger contender to finish first, while Labour sits at 41.5% for second amid gains in several August surveys. Minor parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori trail well behind in the low teens or single digits, limiting their prospects for runner-up status. Recent developments such as Christopher Luxon's survival of a party leadership challenge and the rise of the Opportunity Party have added volatility but not altered the core two-party dynamic driving these probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
音量
$17,846終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight contest between the National Party and Labour Party for the largest vote share ahead of the November 2026 general election, with National often leading or within a few points of Labour in aggregates around 29-32% versus 25-34%. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring National for second place at 53%, as it remains the stronger contender to finish first, while Labour sits at 41.5% for second amid gains in several August surveys. Minor parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori trail well behind in the low teens or single digits, limiting their prospects for runner-up status. Recent developments such as Christopher Luxon's survival of a party leadership challenge and the rise of the Opportunity Party have added volatility but not altered the core two-party dynamic driving these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日関連
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
59%
Labour
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