With the April 21 special election five days away, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects polls showing a razor-thin edge for passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, which would empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, amid surging early voting turnout exceeding 980,000 ballots as of April 14. Recent surveys, including a StateNavigate poll indicating slim yes support and others revealing a voter split, underscore the contest's tightness, with Republican-held districts maintaining a cumulative early voting lead of about 46,000 despite Democratic gains in urban areas like CD4. GOP rural mobilization and partisan framing as potential gerrymandering keep no-pass odds competitive at 17%, while final weekend turnout and Election Day mobilization could widen margins beyond the favored 3-6% pass.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pass 3-6% 32%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 16.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$11,817 Vol.
$11,817 Vol.
2026/04/21
Pass 15%+
3%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
12%
Pass 6-9%
22%
Pass 3-6%
32%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
17%
Pass 3-6% 32%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 16.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$11,817 Vol.
$11,817 Vol.
2026/04/21
Pass 15%+
$1,234 Vol.
3%
Pass 12-15%
$477 Vol.
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 Vol.
12%
Pass 6-9%
$424 Vol.
22%
Pass 3-6%
$1,268 Vol.
32%
Pass <3%
$464 Vol.
17%
No Pass
$6,637 Vol.
17%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).With the April 21 special election five days away, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects polls showing a razor-thin edge for passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, which would empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, amid surging early voting turnout exceeding 980,000 ballots as of April 14. Recent surveys, including a StateNavigate poll indicating slim yes support and others revealing a voter split, underscore the contest's tightness, with Republican-held districts maintaining a cumulative early voting lead of about 46,000 despite Democratic gains in urban areas like CD4. GOP rural mobilization and partisan framing as potential gerrymandering keep no-pass odds competitive at 17%, while final weekend turnout and Election Day mobilization could widen margins beyond the favored 3-6% pass.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$11,817終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).With the April 21 special election five days away, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects polls showing a razor-thin edge for passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, which would empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, amid surging early voting turnout exceeding 980,000 ballots as of April 14. Recent surveys, including a StateNavigate poll indicating slim yes support and others revealing a voter split, underscore the contest's tightness, with Republican-held districts maintaining a cumulative early voting lead of about 46,000 despite Democratic gains in urban areas like CD4. GOP rural mobilization and partisan framing as potential gerrymandering keep no-pass odds competitive at 17%, while final weekend turnout and Election Day mobilization could widen margins beyond the favored 3-6% pass.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
音量
$11,817終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With the April 21 special election five days away, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects polls showing a razor-thin edge for passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, which would empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, amid surging early voting turnout exceeding 980,000 ballots as of April 14. Recent surveys, including a StateNavigate poll indicating slim yes support and others revealing a voter split, underscore the contest's tightness, with Republican-held districts maintaining a cumulative early voting lead of about 46,000 despite Democratic gains in urban areas like CD4. GOP rural mobilization and partisan framing as potential gerrymandering keep no-pass odds competitive at 17%, while final weekend turnout and Election Day mobilization could widen margins beyond the favored 3-6% pass.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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