Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a cluster of outages and elevated errors in mid-April 2026, driving trader consensus toward 12+ downtime days at 87.5% implied probability. Official status reports confirm incidents on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded API endpoints), 15 (widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code lasting nearly three hours), and 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors early UTC). Combined with earlier disruptions on at least six prior days this month—totaling around 10 unique days—traders anticipate persistence amid user-reported performance declines, compute constraints, and lack of transparency from Anthropic. Remaining April days heighten odds for additional failures unless stability fixes are announced, underscoring reliability challenges in scaling large language models.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日12回以上 88%
9～11 12%
6〜8 <1%
$64,233 Vol.
$64,233 Vol.
2026/04/30
6〜8
<1%
9～11
12%
12回以上
88%
12回以上 88%
9～11 12%
6〜8 <1%
$64,233 Vol.
$64,233 Vol.
2026/04/30
6〜8
$9,506 Vol.
<1%
9～11
$7,911 Vol.
12%
12回以上
$14,519 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a cluster of outages and elevated errors in mid-April 2026, driving trader consensus toward 12+ downtime days at 87.5% implied probability. Official status reports confirm incidents on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded API endpoints), 15 (widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code lasting nearly three hours), and 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors early UTC). Combined with earlier disruptions on at least six prior days this month—totaling around 10 unique days—traders anticipate persistence amid user-reported performance declines, compute constraints, and lack of transparency from Anthropic. Remaining April days heighten odds for additional failures unless stability fixes are announced, underscoring reliability challenges in scaling large language models.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
音量
$64,233終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a cluster of outages and elevated errors in mid-April 2026, driving trader consensus toward 12+ downtime days at 87.5% implied probability. Official status reports confirm incidents on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded API endpoints), 15 (widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code lasting nearly three hours), and 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors early UTC). Combined with earlier disruptions on at least six prior days this month—totaling around 10 unique days—traders anticipate persistence amid user-reported performance declines, compute constraints, and lack of transparency from Anthropic. Remaining April days heighten odds for additional failures unless stability fixes are announced, underscoring reliability challenges in scaling large language models.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$64,233終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a cluster of outages and elevated errors in mid-April 2026, driving trader consensus toward 12+ downtime days at 87.5% implied probability. Official status reports confirm incidents on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded API endpoints), 15 (widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code lasting nearly three hours), and 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors early UTC). Combined with earlier disruptions on at least six prior days this month—totaling around 10 unique days—traders anticipate persistence amid user-reported performance declines, compute constraints, and lack of transparency from Anthropic. Remaining April days heighten odds for additional failures unless stability fixes are announced, underscoring reliability challenges in scaling large language models.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問