Recent elevated error rates and outages on Anthropic's Claude AI services, documented on status.claude.com, have driven trader consensus toward 9-12+ days of downtime in May, with 12+ days at 37% implied probability and 9-11 days closely trailing at 34.5%. March 2026 saw incidents on at least 12 unique days—spanning Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Claude.ai, and desktop apps—ahead of April 1's Haiku 4.5 disruption, amid 14+ rapid launches like computer use features that strained infrastructure. Competitive pressure to overtake OpenAI in revenue and capabilities prioritizes iteration over stability, but postmortems (e.g., March 27 Opus errors) signal potential fixes; key swing factors include scaling success versus persistent API bottlenecks before May resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日12回以上 38%
9〜11 35%
6～8 25%
3～5 20%
新規
新規
2026/05/31
0-2
16%
3～5
20%
6～8
25%
9〜11
35%
12回以上
38%
12回以上 38%
9〜11 35%
6～8 25%
3～5 20%
新規
新規
2026/05/31
0-2
$17 Vol.
16%
3～5
$0 Vol.
20%
6～8
$0 Vol.
25%
9〜11
$0 Vol.
35%
12回以上
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates and outages on Anthropic's Claude AI services, documented on status.claude.com, have driven trader consensus toward 9-12+ days of downtime in May, with 12+ days at 37% implied probability and 9-11 days closely trailing at 34.5%. March 2026 saw incidents on at least 12 unique days—spanning Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Claude.ai, and desktop apps—ahead of April 1's Haiku 4.5 disruption, amid 14+ rapid launches like computer use features that strained infrastructure. Competitive pressure to overtake OpenAI in revenue and capabilities prioritizes iteration over stability, but postmortems (e.g., March 27 Opus errors) signal potential fixes; key swing factors include scaling success versus persistent API bottlenecks before May resolves.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$17終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates and outages on Anthropic's Claude AI services, documented on status.claude.com, have driven trader consensus toward 9-12+ days of downtime in May, with 12+ days at 37% implied probability and 9-11 days closely trailing at 34.5%. March 2026 saw incidents on at least 12 unique days—spanning Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Claude.ai, and desktop apps—ahead of April 1's Haiku 4.5 disruption, amid 14+ rapid launches like computer use features that strained infrastructure. Competitive pressure to overtake OpenAI in revenue and capabilities prioritizes iteration over stability, but postmortems (e.g., March 27 Opus errors) signal potential fixes; key swing factors include scaling success versus persistent API bottlenecks before May resolves.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$17終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated error rates and outages on Anthropic's Claude AI services, documented on status.claude.com, have driven trader consensus toward 9-12+ days of downtime in May, with 12+ days at 37% implied probability and 9-11 days closely trailing at 34.5%. March 2026 saw incidents on at least 12 unique days—spanning Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Claude.ai, and desktop apps—ahead of April 1's Haiku 4.5 disruption, amid 14+ rapid launches like computer use features that strained infrastructure. Competitive pressure to overtake OpenAI in revenue and capabilities prioritizes iteration over stability, but postmortems (e.g., March 27 Opus errors) signal potential fixes; key swing factors include scaling success versus persistent API bottlenecks before May resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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