Anthropic's release cadence for its smallest model has lagged behind higher-tier updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 still the current offering since its October 2025 launch. Recent focus has centered on premium additions like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September 2026 plus Opus 5 in July, which deliver advanced coding and agentic capabilities at higher price points while Haiku 4.5 handles high-volume, cost-sensitive tasks at $1/$5 per million tokens. Prediction market-implied odds cluster around a mid-to-late October 2026 window, reflecting trader expectations of a refresh driven by competitive pressure from other labs' efficient models and typical annual Haiku cycles, though no official announcement or benchmark leaks have surfaced yet. Key near-term catalysts include any enterprise feature expansions or developer conference hints that could accelerate a 4.6 or 5-series small model.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/10/15
10月15日
27%
10月31日
61%
12月31日
54%
$9,539 Vol.
10月15日
$241 Vol.
27%
10月31日
$987 Vol.
61%
12月31日
$4,559 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's release cadence for its smallest model has lagged behind higher-tier updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 still the current offering since its October 2025 launch. Recent focus has centered on premium additions like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September 2026 plus Opus 5 in July, which deliver advanced coding and agentic capabilities at higher price points while Haiku 4.5 handles high-volume, cost-sensitive tasks at $1/$5 per million tokens. Prediction market-implied odds cluster around a mid-to-late October 2026 window, reflecting trader expectations of a refresh driven by competitive pressure from other labs' efficient models and typical annual Haiku cycles, though no official announcement or benchmark leaks have surfaced yet. Key near-term catalysts include any enterprise feature expansions or developer conference hints that could accelerate a 4.6 or 5-series small model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
音量
$9,539終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's release cadence for its smallest model has lagged behind higher-tier updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 still the current offering since its October 2025 launch. Recent focus has centered on premium additions like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September 2026 plus Opus 5 in July, which deliver advanced coding and agentic capabilities at higher price points while Haiku 4.5 handles high-volume, cost-sensitive tasks at $1/$5 per million tokens. Prediction market-implied odds cluster around a mid-to-late October 2026 window, reflecting trader expectations of a refresh driven by competitive pressure from other labs' efficient models and typical annual Haiku cycles, though no official announcement or benchmark leaks have surfaced yet. Key near-term catalysts include any enterprise feature expansions or developer conference hints that could accelerate a 4.6 or 5-series small model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$9,539終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's release cadence for its smallest model has lagged behind higher-tier updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 still the current offering since its October 2025 launch. Recent focus has centered on premium additions like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September 2026 plus Opus 5 in July, which deliver advanced coding and agentic capabilities at higher price points while Haiku 4.5 handles high-volume, cost-sensitive tasks at $1/$5 per million tokens. Prediction market-implied odds cluster around a mid-to-late October 2026 window, reflecting trader expectations of a refresh driven by competitive pressure from other labs' efficient models and typical annual Haiku cycles, though no official announcement or benchmark leaks have surfaced yet. Key near-term catalysts include any enterprise feature expansions or developer conference hints that could accelerate a 4.6 or 5-series small model.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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