**US Vice President JD Vance’s potential visits to Pakistan remain closely tied to US-Iran diplomatic efforts, where Islamabad has hosted indirect and direct talks on issues including the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear assurances.** An initial round occurred in April 2026, but a planned follow-up delegation led by Vance was postponed indefinitely after Iran did not respond to US positions. Recent developments include a digitally signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding, with Vance noting Pakistan’s request to delay public release. No confirmed in-person return has been announced since the spring. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether additional high-level meetings or implementation steps will require Vance’s physical presence in Pakistan before the market’s resolution date, versus virtual or alternative venues. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and any new announcements on follow-up negotiations could shift implied probabilities.