Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of steady peso depreciation amid Argentina's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026, where the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adjusts monthly floor and ceiling bands to match official inflation—forecast at 29-30% for the year per recent surveys. With the spot rate hovering near 1365 as of April 15, this aligns closely with BCRA analysts' December forecast of 1700 ARS/USD, implying about 17% annual weakening. Recent FX rule tweaks followed surging capital outflow costs, while the rate dipped to 1354 mid-week before rebounding, underscoring volatility; key catalysts include upcoming IMF Extended Fund Facility reviews and monthly inflation releases that could accelerate band expansion if disinflation stalls.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1600.00+ 54%
1450.00–1499.99 20.9%
1400.00–1449.99 17.2%
1300.00–1349.99 11.8%
신규
신규
2026.12.31
<1250.00
1%
1250.00–1299.99
4%
1300.00–1349.99
11%
1350.00–1399.99
12%
1400.00–1449.99
10%
1450.00–1499.99
27%
1500.00–1549.99
11%
1550.00–1599.99
8%
1600.00+
54%
1600.00+ 54%
1450.00–1499.99 20.9%
1400.00–1449.99 17.2%
1300.00–1349.99 11.8%
신규
신규
2026.12.31
<1250.00
$0 거래량
1%
1250.00–1299.99
$377 거래량
4%
1300.00–1349.99
$0 거래량
11%
1350.00–1399.99
$375 거래량
12%
1400.00–1449.99
$664 거래량
10%
1450.00–1499.99
$725 거래량
27%
1500.00–1549.99
$672 거래량
11%
1550.00–1599.99
$409 거래량
8%
1600.00+
$1,357 거래량
54%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of steady peso depreciation amid Argentina's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026, where the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adjusts monthly floor and ceiling bands to match official inflation—forecast at 29-30% for the year per recent surveys. With the spot rate hovering near 1365 as of April 15, this aligns closely with BCRA analysts' December forecast of 1700 ARS/USD, implying about 17% annual weakening. Recent FX rule tweaks followed surging capital outflow costs, while the rate dipped to 1354 mid-week before rebounding, underscoring volatility; key catalysts include upcoming IMF Extended Fund Facility reviews and monthly inflation releases that could accelerate band expansion if disinflation stalls.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
거래량
$4,578종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of steady peso depreciation amid Argentina's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026, where the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adjusts monthly floor and ceiling bands to match official inflation—forecast at 29-30% for the year per recent surveys. With the spot rate hovering near 1365 as of April 15, this aligns closely with BCRA analysts' December forecast of 1700 ARS/USD, implying about 17% annual weakening. Recent FX rule tweaks followed surging capital outflow costs, while the rate dipped to 1354 mid-week before rebounding, underscoring volatility; key catalysts include upcoming IMF Extended Fund Facility reviews and monthly inflation releases that could accelerate band expansion if disinflation stalls.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$4,578종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of steady peso depreciation amid Argentina's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026, where the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adjusts monthly floor and ceiling bands to match official inflation—forecast at 29-30% for the year per recent surveys. With the spot rate hovering near 1365 as of April 15, this aligns closely with BCRA analysts' December forecast of 1700 ARS/USD, implying about 17% annual weakening. Recent FX rule tweaks followed surging capital outflow costs, while the rate dipped to 1354 mid-week before rebounding, underscoring volatility; key catalysts include upcoming IMF Extended Fund Facility reviews and monthly inflation releases that could accelerate band expansion if disinflation stalls.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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