Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 34.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation and reserve buildup amid policy tweaks. Recent catalysts include the IMF's April 15 staff-level agreement unlocking $1 billion in funds—bolstering BCRA reserves to $45.4 billion after $5.5 billion net purchases year-to-date—and March monthly inflation of 3.4% (annual 32.6%), a 2026 high yet still trending toward a nine-year low. Differentiating higher brackets are risks like stalled inflation above 3%, upcoming debt maturities pressuring reserves, and FX band expansions tied to consumer prices; success in fiscal surplus maintenance could favor sub-1600 stability, while slippage elevates 1700+ odds. Key watch: IMF board approval and April CPI data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,906 거래량
$15,906 거래량
2026.12.31
<1600.00
35%
1600.00–1699.99
24%
1700.00–1799.99
18%
1800.00–1899.99
16%
1900.00–1999.99
15%
2000.00+
18%
$15,906 거래량
$15,906 거래량
2026.12.31
<1600.00
$1,314 거래량
35%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,005 거래량
24%
1700.00–1799.99
$929 거래량
18%
1800.00–1899.99
$713 거래량
16%
1900.00–1999.99
$10,966 거래량
15%
2000.00+
$979 거래량
18%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 34.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation and reserve buildup amid policy tweaks. Recent catalysts include the IMF's April 15 staff-level agreement unlocking $1 billion in funds—bolstering BCRA reserves to $45.4 billion after $5.5 billion net purchases year-to-date—and March monthly inflation of 3.4% (annual 32.6%), a 2026 high yet still trending toward a nine-year low. Differentiating higher brackets are risks like stalled inflation above 3%, upcoming debt maturities pressuring reserves, and FX band expansions tied to consumer prices; success in fiscal surplus maintenance could favor sub-1600 stability, while slippage elevates 1700+ odds. Key watch: IMF board approval and April CPI data.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$15,906종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 34.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation and reserve buildup amid policy tweaks. Recent catalysts include the IMF's April 15 staff-level agreement unlocking $1 billion in funds—bolstering BCRA reserves to $45.4 billion after $5.5 billion net purchases year-to-date—and March monthly inflation of 3.4% (annual 32.6%), a 2026 high yet still trending toward a nine-year low. Differentiating higher brackets are risks like stalled inflation above 3%, upcoming debt maturities pressuring reserves, and FX band expansions tied to consumer prices; success in fiscal surplus maintenance could favor sub-1600 stability, while slippage elevates 1700+ odds. Key watch: IMF board approval and April CPI data.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$15,906종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 34.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation and reserve buildup amid policy tweaks. Recent catalysts include the IMF's April 15 staff-level agreement unlocking $1 billion in funds—bolstering BCRA reserves to $45.4 billion after $5.5 billion net purchases year-to-date—and March monthly inflation of 3.4% (annual 32.6%), a 2026 high yet still trending toward a nine-year low. Differentiating higher brackets are risks like stalled inflation above 3%, upcoming debt maturities pressuring reserves, and FX band expansions tied to consumer prices; success in fiscal surplus maintenance could favor sub-1600 stability, while slippage elevates 1700+ odds. Key watch: IMF board approval and April CPI data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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