Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 41.5% implied probability, with 8-11 at 28%, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities since the February 28 war escalation that slashed daily vessel traffic 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130+. Recent US naval blockade enforcement starting April 13—prompting ship U-turns and limiting flows to 7-12 vessels daily over the past two weeks, including just 11 on April 15 per Bloomberg tracking—has entrenched caution despite a fragile ceasefire. Shadow fleet dominance and stranded tankers amplify geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, where VLCC rates have surged over 120%, with negotiations as the key near-term catalyst for potential volume rebound.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4-7 42%
8-11 28%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
신규
신규
2026.04.19
<4
9%
4-7
42%
8-11
28%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
3%
4-7 42%
8-11 28%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
신규
신규
2026.04.19
<4
$1,619 거래량
9%
4-7
$946 거래량
42%
8-11
$567 거래량
28%
12-15
$481 거래량
9%
16-19
$529 거래량
6%
20+
$2,858 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 41.5% implied probability, with 8-11 at 28%, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities since the February 28 war escalation that slashed daily vessel traffic 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130+. Recent US naval blockade enforcement starting April 13—prompting ship U-turns and limiting flows to 7-12 vessels daily over the past two weeks, including just 11 on April 15 per Bloomberg tracking—has entrenched caution despite a fragile ceasefire. Shadow fleet dominance and stranded tankers amplify geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, where VLCC rates have surged over 120%, with negotiations as the key near-term catalyst for potential volume rebound.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
마켓 개설일: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
거래량
$7,001종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 41.5% implied probability, with 8-11 at 28%, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities since the February 28 war escalation that slashed daily vessel traffic 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130+. Recent US naval blockade enforcement starting April 13—prompting ship U-turns and limiting flows to 7-12 vessels daily over the past two weeks, including just 11 on April 15 per Bloomberg tracking—has entrenched caution despite a fragile ceasefire. Shadow fleet dominance and stranded tankers amplify geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, where VLCC rates have surged over 120%, with negotiations as the key near-term catalyst for potential volume rebound.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
거래량
$7,001종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 41.5% implied probability, with 8-11 at 28%, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities since the February 28 war escalation that slashed daily vessel traffic 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130+. Recent US naval blockade enforcement starting April 13—prompting ship U-turns and limiting flows to 7-12 vessels daily over the past two weeks, including just 11 on April 15 per Bloomberg tracking—has entrenched caution despite a fragile ceasefire. Shadow fleet dominance and stranded tankers amplify geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, where VLCC rates have surged over 120%, with negotiations as the key near-term catalyst for potential volume rebound.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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