Trader consensus on the Strait of Hormuz market favors very low average daily ship transits end of April, with 0-10 ships at 38.5% and 10-20 at 21.3%, driven by the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict that has throttled maritime traffic since late February. Recent ship-tracking data shows transits hovering in the low teens—such as 15 on April 16 and 19-24 on April 14—versus pre-crisis norms of 95-140 vessels daily, amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, Iran's IRGC navigation warnings near Larak Island to avoid mines, and a US selective naval blockade enacted April 13 that prompted vessels to turn back. A massive backlog of over 3,000 ships in the Persian Gulf persists, with insurance withdrawals and attack risks deterring recovery despite limited Iran-linked passages; ceasefire expiration in days could further impact flows through this vital energy chokepoint.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0-10 40%
10-20 22.9%
60+ 14%
50-60 9.2%
$103,763 거래량
$103,763 거래량
2026.04.30
0-10
40%
10-20
23%
20-30
9%
30-40
9%
40-50
7%
50-60
9%
60+
14%
0-10 40%
10-20 22.9%
60+ 14%
50-60 9.2%
$103,763 거래량
$103,763 거래량
2026.04.30
0-10
$25,539 거래량
40%
10-20
$11,106 거래량
23%
20-30
$10,247 거래량
9%
30-40
$8,902 거래량
9%
40-50
$8,141 거래량
7%
50-60
$10,687 거래량
9%
60+
$29,142 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on the Strait of Hormuz market favors very low average daily ship transits end of April, with 0-10 ships at 38.5% and 10-20 at 21.3%, driven by the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict that has throttled maritime traffic since late February. Recent ship-tracking data shows transits hovering in the low teens—such as 15 on April 16 and 19-24 on April 14—versus pre-crisis norms of 95-140 vessels daily, amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, Iran's IRGC navigation warnings near Larak Island to avoid mines, and a US selective naval blockade enacted April 13 that prompted vessels to turn back. A massive backlog of over 3,000 ships in the Persian Gulf persists, with insurance withdrawals and attack risks deterring recovery despite limited Iran-linked passages; ceasefire expiration in days could further impact flows through this vital energy chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
거래량
$103,763종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on the Strait of Hormuz market favors very low average daily ship transits end of April, with 0-10 ships at 38.5% and 10-20 at 21.3%, driven by the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict that has throttled maritime traffic since late February. Recent ship-tracking data shows transits hovering in the low teens—such as 15 on April 16 and 19-24 on April 14—versus pre-crisis norms of 95-140 vessels daily, amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, Iran's IRGC navigation warnings near Larak Island to avoid mines, and a US selective naval blockade enacted April 13 that prompted vessels to turn back. A massive backlog of over 3,000 ships in the Persian Gulf persists, with insurance withdrawals and attack risks deterring recovery despite limited Iran-linked passages; ceasefire expiration in days could further impact flows through this vital energy chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$103,763종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Strait of Hormuz market favors very low average daily ship transits end of April, with 0-10 ships at 38.5% and 10-20 at 21.3%, driven by the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict that has throttled maritime traffic since late February. Recent ship-tracking data shows transits hovering in the low teens—such as 15 on April 16 and 19-24 on April 14—versus pre-crisis norms of 95-140 vessels daily, amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, Iran's IRGC navigation warnings near Larak Island to avoid mines, and a US selective naval blockade enacted April 13 that prompted vessels to turn back. A massive backlog of over 3,000 ships in the Persian Gulf persists, with insurance withdrawals and attack risks deterring recovery despite limited Iran-linked passages; ceasefire expiration in days could further impact flows through this vital energy chokepoint.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문