US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline for unification, preferring non-military coercion amid economic challenges and deterrence risks. This trader consensus at 91.3% for "No" by year-end reflects reinforced de-escalation signals, including President Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing, where Xi reiterated opposition to independence but stressed peaceful cross-strait ties, alongside offers to resume limited economic links. Routine PLA warplane incursions and exercises persist as gray-zone pressure, but absent invasion preparations, bolstered by US arms packages and Taiwan's defense spending hikes. Late escalations like major blockades or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,597,654 거래량
$19,597,654 거래량
예
$19,597,654 거래량
$19,597,654 거래량
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline for unification, preferring non-military coercion amid economic challenges and deterrence risks. This trader consensus at 91.3% for "No" by year-end reflects reinforced de-escalation signals, including President Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing, where Xi reiterated opposition to independence but stressed peaceful cross-strait ties, alongside offers to resume limited economic links. Routine PLA warplane incursions and exercises persist as gray-zone pressure, but absent invasion preparations, bolstered by US arms packages and Taiwan's defense spending hikes. Late escalations like major blockades or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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