Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries for US military actions in 2026, reflecting seven confirmed theaters so far: airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia (nearly 50 in Q1), ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Houthi targets in Yemen, a regime-capture raid in Venezuela in January, joint counterterrorism operations in Ecuador in March, and the now-ceasefired 38-day war with Iran sparked by February strikes alongside Israel. This early-year escalation under the Trump administration's assertive posture has set a brisk pace, but the recent Iran truce and lack of fresh targets keep the race tight between 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%), as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of renewed hostilities or novel interventions in areas like North Korea or Latin American cartels. Upcoming diplomatic summits or proxy flare-ups could tip probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$887,643 거래량
$887,643 거래량
2026.12.31
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
3%
12
3%
13
3%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$887,643 거래량
$887,643 거래량
2026.12.31
6
$420,356 거래량
10%
7
$6,328 거래량
32%
8
$36,988 거래량
23%
9
$11,318 거래량
14%
10
$11,824 거래량
9%
11
$8,707 거래량
3%
12
$28,360 거래량
3%
13
$42,524 거래량
3%
14
$42,028 거래량
1%
15+
$119,718 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries for US military actions in 2026, reflecting seven confirmed theaters so far: airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia (nearly 50 in Q1), ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Houthi targets in Yemen, a regime-capture raid in Venezuela in January, joint counterterrorism operations in Ecuador in March, and the now-ceasefired 38-day war with Iran sparked by February strikes alongside Israel. This early-year escalation under the Trump administration's assertive posture has set a brisk pace, but the recent Iran truce and lack of fresh targets keep the race tight between 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%), as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of renewed hostilities or novel interventions in areas like North Korea or Latin American cartels. Upcoming diplomatic summits or proxy flare-ups could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
거래량
$887,643종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries for US military actions in 2026, reflecting seven confirmed theaters so far: airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia (nearly 50 in Q1), ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Houthi targets in Yemen, a regime-capture raid in Venezuela in January, joint counterterrorism operations in Ecuador in March, and the now-ceasefired 38-day war with Iran sparked by February strikes alongside Israel. This early-year escalation under the Trump administration's assertive posture has set a brisk pace, but the recent Iran truce and lack of fresh targets keep the race tight between 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%), as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of renewed hostilities or novel interventions in areas like North Korea or Latin American cartels. Upcoming diplomatic summits or proxy flare-ups could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$887,643종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries for US military actions in 2026, reflecting seven confirmed theaters so far: airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia (nearly 50 in Q1), ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Houthi targets in Yemen, a regime-capture raid in Venezuela in January, joint counterterrorism operations in Ecuador in March, and the now-ceasefired 38-day war with Iran sparked by February strikes alongside Israel. This early-year escalation under the Trump administration's assertive posture has set a brisk pace, but the recent Iran truce and lack of fresh targets keep the race tight between 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%), as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of renewed hostilities or novel interventions in areas like North Korea or Latin American cartels. Upcoming diplomatic summits or proxy flare-ups could tip probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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