How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8 34.5%
9 33.4%
10 13.7%
11 9.2%
$1,535,521 거래량
$1,535,521 거래량
2026.12.31
8
$285,851 거래량
35%
9
$28,719 거래량
33%
10
$23,306 거래량
14%
11
$23,091 거래량
9%
12
$41,190 거래량
3%
13
$96,211 거래량
2%
14
$146,539 거래량
1%
15+
$124,460 거래량
1%
8 34.5%
9 33.4%
10 13.7%
11 9.2%
$1,535,521 거래량
$1,535,521 거래량
2026.12.31
8
$285,851 거래량
35%
9
$28,719 거래량
33%
10
$23,306 거래량
14%
11
$23,091 거래량
9%
12
$41,190 거래량
3%
13
$96,211 거래량
2%
14
$146,539 거래량
1%
15+
$124,460 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This was the third such strike in three weeks, confirming US military action limited to Iran.
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
9 jumps to 34%9%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, 2026, in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026, reinforcing market expectations for strikes in Iran only.
Jun 19 2026
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
Jun 3 2026
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
May 27 2026
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
May 15 2026
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
May 15 2026
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
May 7 2026
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
May 1 2026
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
Mar 12 2026
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Mar 3 2026
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Mar 3 2026
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Mar 3 2026
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
Mar 3 2026
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Mar 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch massive strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This included strikes on Iranian military and government sites, escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive joint airstrike campaign targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. This major military action against Iran set the tone for the conflict and influenced market expectations about US military engagements in 2026.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
Feb 27 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
Feb 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 10 2026
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
Jan 10 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
Jan 3 2026
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
Dec 25 2025
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This was the third such strike in three weeks, confirming US military action limited to Iran.
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
9 jumps to 34%9%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, 2026, in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026, reinforcing market expectations for strikes in Iran only.
Jun 19 2026
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
Jun 3 2026
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
May 27 2026
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
May 15 2026
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
May 15 2026
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
May 7 2026
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
May 1 2026
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
Mar 12 2026
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Mar 3 2026
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Mar 3 2026
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Mar 3 2026
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
Mar 3 2026
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Mar 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch massive strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This included strikes on Iranian military and government sites, escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive joint airstrike campaign targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. This major military action against Iran set the tone for the conflict and influenced market expectations about US military engagements in 2026.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
Feb 27 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
Feb 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 10 2026
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
Jan 10 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
Jan 3 2026
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
Dec 25 2025
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
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"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"은 16개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 35%의 "8"이며, 이어서 33%의 "9"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 35¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 35%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"은 총 $1.5 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 13, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 16개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"의 현재 유력 후보는 35%의 "8"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 35%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 33%의 "9"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"에 $1.5 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" 마켓에서 "8"의 35¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "8"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 35%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 35¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 65¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" 마켓은 Dec 30, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 34개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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