Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$51,592 거래량
$51,592 거래량
2026.12.31
$51,592 거래량
$51,592 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$51,592종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$51,592종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90.3% implied probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027 because developing an operational arsenal requires years of fissile material production, warhead design, delivery systems, and testing—steps constrained by NPT obligations, US extended deterrence commitments, and alliance pressures. South Korea and Japan maintain advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure and have discussed latent options amid regional threats, yet both reaffirm non-proliferation pledges and coordinate closely with Washington on enrichment limits and submarine programs. Saudi Arabia continues to tie any potential pursuit to Iranian developments without independent weaponization steps. No ally has announced withdrawal from the NPT or initiated a dedicated military program within the resolution window, preserving the strong consensus reflected in current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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