Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability for no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable progress among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Poland, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent US-Russia New START treaty expiration in February 2026 heightened global arms race fears but elicited no official announcements or policy shifts toward ally proliferation, with Washington reinforcing nonproliferation via bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements featuring safeguards, such as the latest US-Saudi energy deal. Domestic legislation like the No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act introduced in April underscores congressional opposition, while NPT commitments, technical hurdles, and alliance dependencies maintain high barriers absent a major escalation like intensified North Korean or Chinese threats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability for no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable progress among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Poland, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent US-Russia New START treaty expiration in February 2026 heightened global arms race fears but elicited no official announcements or policy shifts toward ally proliferation, with Washington reinforcing nonproliferation via bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements featuring safeguards, such as the latest US-Saudi energy deal. Domestic legislation like the No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act introduced in April underscores congressional opposition, while NPT commitments, technical hurdles, and alliance dependencies maintain high barriers absent a major escalation like intensified North Korean or Chinese threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$6,021종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability for no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable progress among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Poland, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent US-Russia New START treaty expiration in February 2026 heightened global arms race fears but elicited no official announcements or policy shifts toward ally proliferation, with Washington reinforcing nonproliferation via bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements featuring safeguards, such as the latest US-Saudi energy deal. Domestic legislation like the No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act introduced in April underscores congressional opposition, while NPT commitments, technical hurdles, and alliance dependencies maintain high barriers absent a major escalation like intensified North Korean or Chinese threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$6,021종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability for no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable progress among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Poland, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent US-Russia New START treaty expiration in February 2026 heightened global arms race fears but elicited no official announcements or policy shifts toward ally proliferation, with Washington reinforcing nonproliferation via bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements featuring safeguards, such as the latest US-Saudi energy deal. Domestic legislation like the No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act introduced in April underscores congressional opposition, while NPT commitments, technical hurdles, and alliance dependencies maintain high barriers absent a major escalation like intensified North Korean or Chinese threats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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