Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled peace negotiations and absence of binding commitments. In December 2025, President Zelenskyy signaled willingness to abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees akin to Article 5 during US-mediated talks in Berlin, but Russia rejected terms without territorial concessions, and discussions collapsed. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early April 2026 statements confirmed no alliance consensus on Ukraine's accession, with several members holding back amid ongoing frontline stalemate. Unsuccessful mediation attempts through April underscore political and military barriers to any renunciation deal before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,109 거래량
$22,109 거래량
2026.06.30
$22,109 거래량
$22,109 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled peace negotiations and absence of binding commitments. In December 2025, President Zelenskyy signaled willingness to abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees akin to Article 5 during US-mediated talks in Berlin, but Russia rejected terms without territorial concessions, and discussions collapsed. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early April 2026 statements confirmed no alliance consensus on Ukraine's accession, with several members holding back amid ongoing frontline stalemate. Unsuccessful mediation attempts through April underscore political and military barriers to any renunciation deal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
거래량
$22,109종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled peace negotiations and absence of binding commitments. In December 2025, President Zelenskyy signaled willingness to abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees akin to Article 5 during US-mediated talks in Berlin, but Russia rejected terms without territorial concessions, and discussions collapsed. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early April 2026 statements confirmed no alliance consensus on Ukraine's accession, with several members holding back amid ongoing frontline stalemate. Unsuccessful mediation attempts through April underscore political and military barriers to any renunciation deal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
거래량
$22,109종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled peace negotiations and absence of binding commitments. In December 2025, President Zelenskyy signaled willingness to abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees akin to Article 5 during US-mediated talks in Berlin, but Russia rejected terms without territorial concessions, and discussions collapsed. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early April 2026 statements confirmed no alliance consensus on Ukraine's accession, with several members holding back amid ongoing frontline stalemate. Unsuccessful mediation attempts through April underscore political and military barriers to any renunciation deal before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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