Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65.5% probability that United Russia will claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its consistent polling lead around 40% in recent WCIOM and FOM surveys, incumbency advantages, and historical dominance in the 225 single-mandate districts where resources secure wins. New People's surge to 15.8% in the April 5 WCIOM poll—up from below 10% in February per VTsIOM data—has boosted its 28.7% odds, fueled by voter frustration over messaging app bans and internet disruptions, positioning the party as permitted opposition above the 5% proportional threshold for the 225 party-list seats. LDPR and KPRF hover at 10-13%, while others lag; upcoming primaries and Kremlin electoral engineering, including expanded electronic voting, loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트통합 러시아(ER) 66%
뉴피플(NL) 28.7%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,454,046 거래량
$5,454,046 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
66%
뉴피플(NL)
29%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
<1%
통합 러시아(ER) 66%
뉴피플(NL) 28.7%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,454,046 거래량
$5,454,046 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
$1,506,141 거래량
66%
뉴피플(NL)
$490,684 거래량
29%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
$2,126,050 거래량
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
$362,134 거래량
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
$326,287 거래량
<1%
Rodina
$358,308 거래량
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
$284,448 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65.5% probability that United Russia will claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its consistent polling lead around 40% in recent WCIOM and FOM surveys, incumbency advantages, and historical dominance in the 225 single-mandate districts where resources secure wins. New People's surge to 15.8% in the April 5 WCIOM poll—up from below 10% in February per VTsIOM data—has boosted its 28.7% odds, fueled by voter frustration over messaging app bans and internet disruptions, positioning the party as permitted opposition above the 5% proportional threshold for the 225 party-list seats. LDPR and KPRF hover at 10-13%, while others lag; upcoming primaries and Kremlin electoral engineering, including expanded electronic voting, loom as key catalysts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
거래량
$5,454,046종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65.5% probability that United Russia will claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its consistent polling lead around 40% in recent WCIOM and FOM surveys, incumbency advantages, and historical dominance in the 225 single-mandate districts where resources secure wins. New People's surge to 15.8% in the April 5 WCIOM poll—up from below 10% in February per VTsIOM data—has boosted its 28.7% odds, fueled by voter frustration over messaging app bans and internet disruptions, positioning the party as permitted opposition above the 5% proportional threshold for the 225 party-list seats. LDPR and KPRF hover at 10-13%, while others lag; upcoming primaries and Kremlin electoral engineering, including expanded electronic voting, loom as key catalysts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
거래량
$5,454,046종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65.5% probability that United Russia will claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its consistent polling lead around 40% in recent WCIOM and FOM surveys, incumbency advantages, and historical dominance in the 225 single-mandate districts where resources secure wins. New People's surge to 15.8% in the April 5 WCIOM poll—up from below 10% in February per VTsIOM data—has boosted its 28.7% odds, fueled by voter frustration over messaging app bans and internet disruptions, positioning the party as permitted opposition above the 5% proportional threshold for the 225 party-list seats. LDPR and KPRF hover at 10-13%, while others lag; upcoming primaries and Kremlin electoral engineering, including expanded electronic voting, loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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