Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability of winning Senate control in the 2026 midterms over Republicans at 42.5%, driven by the incumbent president's party historical disadvantage—averaging net losses of three to four seats—and a favorable Democratic path requiring just four flips from the current 53-47 Republican majority. Republicans defend 22 seats, including vulnerabilities in battleground states like Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), North Carolina, and Iowa, where recent polling shows tightening races. The Cook Political Report's shift of four contests toward Democrats last week, citing a challenging GOP climate, has bolstered this sentiment, though Democrats must hold competitive seats like Georgia amid upcoming primaries and the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,953,528 거래량
$1,953,528 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
57%
공화당
43%
$1,953,528 거래량
$1,953,528 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
$1,036,454 거래량
57%
공화당
$917,074 거래량
43%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability of winning Senate control in the 2026 midterms over Republicans at 42.5%, driven by the incumbent president's party historical disadvantage—averaging net losses of three to four seats—and a favorable Democratic path requiring just four flips from the current 53-47 Republican majority. Republicans defend 22 seats, including vulnerabilities in battleground states like Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), North Carolina, and Iowa, where recent polling shows tightening races. The Cook Political Report's shift of four contests toward Democrats last week, citing a challenging GOP climate, has bolstered this sentiment, though Democrats must hold competitive seats like Georgia amid upcoming primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
마켓 개설일: Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ET
거래량
$1,953,528종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability of winning Senate control in the 2026 midterms over Republicans at 42.5%, driven by the incumbent president's party historical disadvantage—averaging net losses of three to four seats—and a favorable Democratic path requiring just four flips from the current 53-47 Republican majority. Republicans defend 22 seats, including vulnerabilities in battleground states like Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), North Carolina, and Iowa, where recent polling shows tightening races. The Cook Political Report's shift of four contests toward Democrats last week, citing a challenging GOP climate, has bolstered this sentiment, though Democrats must hold competitive seats like Georgia amid upcoming primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
거래량
$1,953,528종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability of winning Senate control in the 2026 midterms over Republicans at 42.5%, driven by the incumbent president's party historical disadvantage—averaging net losses of three to four seats—and a favorable Democratic path requiring just four flips from the current 53-47 Republican majority. Republicans defend 22 seats, including vulnerabilities in battleground states like Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), North Carolina, and Iowa, where recent polling shows tightening races. The Cook Political Report's shift of four contests toward Democrats last week, citing a challenging GOP climate, has bolstered this sentiment, though Democrats must hold competitive seats like Georgia amid upcoming primaries and the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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