Acting President Iliana Iotova leads trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for Bulgaria's Fall 2026 presidential election, bolstered by her incumbency advantage after assuming office following Rumen Radev's January resignation amid persistent political deadlock. Her recent consultations with parliamentary groups, including We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) and GERB, to form a caretaker government ahead of the April 19 snap parliamentary vote—Bulgaria's eighth in five years—have heightened her visibility. Nikolai Denkov follows at 26.5%, drawing support from PP-DB's reformist momentum in recent parliamentary polls, where allies like Progressive Bulgaria lead. Rosen Zhelyazkov at 13% reflects GERB's opposition strength despite their prior government's December collapse, underscoring a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner beyond 45%. The snap election outcome could reshape coalitions and endorsements influencing the two-round presidential race.