Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a razor-thin lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Polymarket odds for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election, mirroring recent polls showing a statistical tie in simulated runoffs. A Genial/Quaest survey released April 15 placed Flávio ahead numerically at 42%, while CNT/MDA and Datafolha polls over the past week depict the pair deadlocked within margins of error, reflecting Flávio's surge since entering the race in December 2025 with his imprisoned father Jair's endorsement. Trader sentiment underscores anti-incumbent momentum amid economic pressures and Lula's age concerns at 79, keeping the contest tight; separation could arise from party conventions by June, economic data releases, or scandals before candidate registrations close in August. Third-place contenders like Renan Santos trail far behind, signaling a likely two-way race headed to a runoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트플라비오 보우소나루 40.3%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바 40%
헤난 산토스 6.5%
페르난두 아다지 4.3%
$51,286,143 거래량
$51,286,143 거래량
플라비오 보우소나루
40%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
40%
헤난 산토스
6%
페르난두 아다지
4%
카밀루 산타나
3%
호날두 카이아두
2%
로메우 제마
2%
자이르 보우소나루
1%
제랄두 알크민
1%
미셸 볼소나루
<1%
알도 헤벨로
<1%
에두아르두 볼소나루
<1%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르
<1%
에두아르두 레이트
<1%
플라비오 보우소나루 40.3%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바 40%
헤난 산토스 6.5%
페르난두 아다지 4.3%
$51,286,143 거래량
$51,286,143 거래량
플라비오 보우소나루
40%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
40%
헤난 산토스
6%
페르난두 아다지
4%
카밀루 산타나
3%
호날두 카이아두
2%
로메우 제마
2%
자이르 보우소나루
1%
제랄두 알크민
1%
미셸 볼소나루
<1%
알도 헤벨로
<1%
에두아르두 볼소나루
<1%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르
<1%
에두아르두 레이트
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a razor-thin lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Polymarket odds for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election, mirroring recent polls showing a statistical tie in simulated runoffs. A Genial/Quaest survey released April 15 placed Flávio ahead numerically at 42%, while CNT/MDA and Datafolha polls over the past week depict the pair deadlocked within margins of error, reflecting Flávio's surge since entering the race in December 2025 with his imprisoned father Jair's endorsement. Trader sentiment underscores anti-incumbent momentum amid economic pressures and Lula's age concerns at 79, keeping the contest tight; separation could arise from party conventions by June, economic data releases, or scandals before candidate registrations close in August. Third-place contenders like Renan Santos trail far behind, signaling a likely two-way race headed to a runoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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