The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트ACM Neto 47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,466 거래량
$35,466 거래량
2026.10.04
ACM Neto
47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,466 거래량
$35,466 거래량
2026.10.04
ACM Neto
$12,006 거래량
47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$10,153 거래량
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,671 거래량
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,451 거래량
<1%
João Roma
$2,077 거래량
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,173 거래량
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,935 거래량
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
거래량
$35,466종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
거래량
$35,466종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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