Recent polls from Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia, conducted in early April 2026, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 30-37%, well below the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado at 4-6% and Romeu Zema at 3-5%—splits opposition votes, ensuring a likely runoff on October 25, consistent with every Brazilian presidential election since 2002. Tight simulated second-round matchups, like Lula's narrow edge in the latest CNT/MDA survey, reflect polarized trader consensus pricing an 88% implied probability of no first-round victor amid ongoing campaign dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$57,676 거래량
$57,676 거래량
2026.10.04
예
$57,676 거래량
$57,676 거래량
2026.10.04
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia, conducted in early April 2026, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 30-37%, well below the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado at 4-6% and Romeu Zema at 3-5%—splits opposition votes, ensuring a likely runoff on October 25, consistent with every Brazilian presidential election since 2002. Tight simulated second-round matchups, like Lula's narrow edge in the latest CNT/MDA survey, reflect polarized trader consensus pricing an 88% implied probability of no first-round victor amid ongoing campaign dynamics.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
거래량
$57,676종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia, conducted in early April 2026, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 30-37%, well below the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado at 4-6% and Romeu Zema at 3-5%—splits opposition votes, ensuring a likely runoff on October 25, consistent with every Brazilian presidential election since 2002. Tight simulated second-round matchups, like Lula's narrow edge in the latest CNT/MDA survey, reflect polarized trader consensus pricing an 88% implied probability of no first-round victor amid ongoing campaign dynamics.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$57,676종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia, conducted in early April 2026, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 30-37%, well below the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado at 4-6% and Romeu Zema at 3-5%—splits opposition votes, ensuring a likely runoff on October 25, consistent with every Brazilian presidential election since 2002. Tight simulated second-round matchups, like Lula's narrow edge in the latest CNT/MDA survey, reflect polarized trader consensus pricing an 88% implied probability of no first-round victor amid ongoing campaign dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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