Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA, conducted April 7-12, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2-4 percentage points in simulated first-round voting intentions—Lula at 39-40%, Flávio at 35-37%—with high undecided shares and no candidate nearing 50% for outright victory. This tightening race, down from Lula's wider leads in March surveys like AtlasIntel (5.8 points), reflects Flávio's gains amid opposition consolidation, boosting trader consensus on sub-5% and 5-10% Lula margins while pricing Flávio's competitive <5% outcome. A runoff appears likely on October 25 if no majority emerges on October 4, with low odds for other candidates' victories underscoring the two-way contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트룰라 다 시우바 <5% 39%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 23%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 20%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+ 9.3%
$219,671 거래량
$219,671 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
6%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
3%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
23%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
39%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
9%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
8%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
20%
헤난 산토스 승리
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
1%
기타
4%
룰라 다 시우바 <5% 39%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 23%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 20%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+ 9.3%
$219,671 거래량
$219,671 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
$3,822 거래량
6%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
$1,621 거래량
3%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
$6,098 거래량
23%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
$1,962 거래량
39%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
$1,126 거래량
9%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
$1,310 거래량
8%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
$2,760 거래량
20%
헤난 산토스 승리
$197,660 거래량
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
$790 거래량
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
$1,024 거래량
1%
기타
$1,497 거래량
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA, conducted April 7-12, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2-4 percentage points in simulated first-round voting intentions—Lula at 39-40%, Flávio at 35-37%—with high undecided shares and no candidate nearing 50% for outright victory. This tightening race, down from Lula's wider leads in March surveys like AtlasIntel (5.8 points), reflects Flávio's gains amid opposition consolidation, boosting trader consensus on sub-5% and 5-10% Lula margins while pricing Flávio's competitive <5% outcome. A runoff appears likely on October 25 if no majority emerges on October 4, with low odds for other candidates' victories underscoring the two-way contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$219,671종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA, conducted April 7-12, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2-4 percentage points in simulated first-round voting intentions—Lula at 39-40%, Flávio at 35-37%—with high undecided shares and no candidate nearing 50% for outright victory. This tightening race, down from Lula's wider leads in March surveys like AtlasIntel (5.8 points), reflects Flávio's gains amid opposition consolidation, boosting trader consensus on sub-5% and 5-10% Lula margins while pricing Flávio's competitive <5% outcome. A runoff appears likely on October 25 if no majority emerges on October 4, with low odds for other candidates' victories underscoring the two-way contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$219,671종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA, conducted April 7-12, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2-4 percentage points in simulated first-round voting intentions—Lula at 39-40%, Flávio at 35-37%—with high undecided shares and no candidate nearing 50% for outright victory. This tightening race, down from Lula's wider leads in March surveys like AtlasIntel (5.8 points), reflects Flávio's gains amid opposition consolidation, boosting trader consensus on sub-5% and 5-10% Lula margins while pricing Flávio's competitive <5% outcome. A runoff appears likely on October 25 if no majority emerges on October 4, with low odds for other candidates' victories underscoring the two-way contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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