Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant position in Polymarket's first-round winner market reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling lead of 35-38% in recent surveys from GAD3, AtlasIntel, and Centro Nacional de Consultoría, driven by the Pacto Histórico coalition's strong showing in the March 8 legislative elections and primaries where he secured the leftist nomination. Fragmentation among right-wing challengers like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who split votes at 15-22% each, bolsters expectations of Cepeda topping the May 31 first-round ballot without reaching the 50%+1 outright win threshold for avoiding a runoff. While his edge exceeds polling averages amid undecided voters, scenarios like a right-wing vote consolidation, major scandal, or Petro administration fallout could narrow the gap before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트이반 세페다 카스트로 93%
팔로마 발렌시아 2.6%
아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야 2.1%
구스타보 볼리바르 <1%
$2,430,883 거래량
$2,430,883 거래량
2026.05.31
이반 세페다 카스트로
93%
팔로마 발렌시아
3%
아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야
2%
구스타보 볼리바르
<1%
비키 다빌라
<1%
후안 카를로스 핀손
<1%
세르히오 파하르도
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
<1%
루이스 힐베르토 무리요
<1%
클라우디아 로페스
<1%
후안 다니엘 오비에도
<1%
후안 마누엘 갈란
<1%
헤르만 바르가스 예라스
<1%
로이 바레라스
<1%
다니엘 킨테로
<1%
마우리시오 카르데나스
<1%
엔리케 페냐로사
<1%
이반 세페다 카스트로 93%
팔로마 발렌시아 2.6%
아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야 2.1%
구스타보 볼리바르 <1%
$2,430,883 거래량
$2,430,883 거래량
2026.05.31
이반 세페다 카스트로
$130,007 거래량
93%
팔로마 발렌시아
$267,296 거래량
3%
아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야
$527,670 거래량
2%
구스타보 볼리바르
$110,435 거래량
<1%
비키 다빌라
$267,001 거래량
<1%
후안 카를로스 핀손
$64,187 거래량
<1%
세르히오 파하르도
$96,409 거래량
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$182,662 거래량
<1%
루이스 힐베르토 무리요
$122,921 거래량
<1%
클라우디아 로페스
$88,032 거래량
<1%
후안 다니엘 오비에도
$77,172 거래량
<1%
후안 마누엘 갈란
$113,188 거래량
<1%
헤르만 바르가스 예라스
$77,635 거래량
<1%
로이 바레라스
$106,696 거래량
<1%
다니엘 킨테로
$55,856 거래량
<1%
마우리시오 카르데나스
$52,759 거래량
<1%
엔리케 페냐로사
$54,597 거래량
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant position in Polymarket's first-round winner market reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling lead of 35-38% in recent surveys from GAD3, AtlasIntel, and Centro Nacional de Consultoría, driven by the Pacto Histórico coalition's strong showing in the March 8 legislative elections and primaries where he secured the leftist nomination. Fragmentation among right-wing challengers like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who split votes at 15-22% each, bolsters expectations of Cepeda topping the May 31 first-round ballot without reaching the 50%+1 outright win threshold for avoiding a runoff. While his edge exceeds polling averages amid undecided voters, scenarios like a right-wing vote consolidation, major scandal, or Petro administration fallout could narrow the gap before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
거래량
$2,430,883종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant position in Polymarket's first-round winner market reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling lead of 35-38% in recent surveys from GAD3, AtlasIntel, and Centro Nacional de Consultoría, driven by the Pacto Histórico coalition's strong showing in the March 8 legislative elections and primaries where he secured the leftist nomination. Fragmentation among right-wing challengers like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who split votes at 15-22% each, bolsters expectations of Cepeda topping the May 31 first-round ballot without reaching the 50%+1 outright win threshold for avoiding a runoff. While his edge exceeds polling averages amid undecided voters, scenarios like a right-wing vote consolidation, major scandal, or Petro administration fallout could narrow the gap before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
거래량
$2,430,883종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant position in Polymarket's first-round winner market reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling lead of 35-38% in recent surveys from GAD3, AtlasIntel, and Centro Nacional de Consultoría, driven by the Pacto Histórico coalition's strong showing in the March 8 legislative elections and primaries where he secured the leftist nomination. Fragmentation among right-wing challengers like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who split votes at 15-22% each, bolsters expectations of Cepeda topping the May 31 first-round ballot without reaching the 50%+1 outright win threshold for avoiding a runoff. While his edge exceeds polling averages amid undecided voters, scenarios like a right-wing vote consolidation, major scandal, or Petro administration fallout could narrow the gap before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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