**Trader consensus favors "No" at 85.5% implied probability for any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep procedural barriers and institutional resistance.** The Senate's rejection yesterday of the CPI do Crime Organizado final report—which recommended impeachment proceedings against three STF justices over alleged Banco Master ties—eliminated a key recent push, following a last-minute committee member swap. No STF justice has ever been impeached since 1988, with processes requiring Senate President approval to docket complaints, followed by a two-thirds floor vote after any PGR referral, as clarified in Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting initiators. Despite multiple petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes and public polls showing 72% view STF power as excessive, congressional centrists prioritize stability ahead of October 2026 elections, underscoring low near-term risk despite ongoing political tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$59,200 거래량
$59,200 거래량
2026.12.31
$59,200 거래량
$59,200 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 85.5% implied probability for any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep procedural barriers and institutional resistance.** The Senate's rejection yesterday of the CPI do Crime Organizado final report—which recommended impeachment proceedings against three STF justices over alleged Banco Master ties—eliminated a key recent push, following a last-minute committee member swap. No STF justice has ever been impeached since 1988, with processes requiring Senate President approval to docket complaints, followed by a two-thirds floor vote after any PGR referral, as clarified in Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting initiators. Despite multiple petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes and public polls showing 72% view STF power as excessive, congressional centrists prioritize stability ahead of October 2026 elections, underscoring low near-term risk despite ongoing political tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
거래량
$59,200종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 85.5% implied probability for any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep procedural barriers and institutional resistance.** The Senate's rejection yesterday of the CPI do Crime Organizado final report—which recommended impeachment proceedings against three STF justices over alleged Banco Master ties—eliminated a key recent push, following a last-minute committee member swap. No STF justice has ever been impeached since 1988, with processes requiring Senate President approval to docket complaints, followed by a two-thirds floor vote after any PGR referral, as clarified in Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting initiators. Despite multiple petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes and public polls showing 72% view STF power as excessive, congressional centrists prioritize stability ahead of October 2026 elections, underscoring low near-term risk despite ongoing political tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$59,200종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favors "No" at 85.5% implied probability for any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep procedural barriers and institutional resistance.** The Senate's rejection yesterday of the CPI do Crime Organizado final report—which recommended impeachment proceedings against three STF justices over alleged Banco Master ties—eliminated a key recent push, following a last-minute committee member swap. No STF justice has ever been impeached since 1988, with processes requiring Senate President approval to docket complaints, followed by a two-thirds floor vote after any PGR referral, as clarified in Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting initiators. Despite multiple petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes and public polls showing 72% view STF power as excessive, congressional centrists prioritize stability ahead of October 2026 elections, underscoring low near-term risk despite ongoing political tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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