U.S. Customs and Border Protection's announcement on April 14 that its CAPE refund system will launch April 20 has solidified trader consensus at 61.5% for a court forcing President Trump to refund invalidated tariffs, following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling that his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) measures exceeded executive authority. The U.S. Court of International Trade's March 4 order by Judge Richard Eaton directed refunds exceeding $130 billion plus interest—accruing at $650-700 million monthly—to importers, after CBP cited logistical hurdles and secured a pause for system development covering 56,000+ filers initially. With the administration signaling broad compliance amid ongoing V.O.S. Selections appeal and phased rollout, traders weigh high likelihood of denial and actual payments by June 30 resolution against potential delays for smaller firms or manual processes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$352,771 거래량
$352,771 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$352,771 거래량
$352,771 거래량
2026.06.30
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Customs and Border Protection's announcement on April 14 that its CAPE refund system will launch April 20 has solidified trader consensus at 61.5% for a court forcing President Trump to refund invalidated tariffs, following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling that his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) measures exceeded executive authority. The U.S. Court of International Trade's March 4 order by Judge Richard Eaton directed refunds exceeding $130 billion plus interest—accruing at $650-700 million monthly—to importers, after CBP cited logistical hurdles and secured a pause for system development covering 56,000+ filers initially. With the administration signaling broad compliance amid ongoing V.O.S. Selections appeal and phased rollout, traders weigh high likelihood of denial and actual payments by June 30 resolution against potential delays for smaller firms or manual processes.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ET
거래량
$352,771종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Customs and Border Protection's announcement on April 14 that its CAPE refund system will launch April 20 has solidified trader consensus at 61.5% for a court forcing President Trump to refund invalidated tariffs, following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling that his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) measures exceeded executive authority. The U.S. Court of International Trade's March 4 order by Judge Richard Eaton directed refunds exceeding $130 billion plus interest—accruing at $650-700 million monthly—to importers, after CBP cited logistical hurdles and secured a pause for system development covering 56,000+ filers initially. With the administration signaling broad compliance amid ongoing V.O.S. Selections appeal and phased rollout, traders weigh high likelihood of denial and actual payments by June 30 resolution against potential delays for smaller firms or manual processes.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$352,771종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. Customs and Border Protection's announcement on April 14 that its CAPE refund system will launch April 20 has solidified trader consensus at 61.5% for a court forcing President Trump to refund invalidated tariffs, following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling that his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) measures exceeded executive authority. The U.S. Court of International Trade's March 4 order by Judge Richard Eaton directed refunds exceeding $130 billion plus interest—accruing at $650-700 million monthly—to importers, after CBP cited logistical hurdles and secured a pause for system development covering 56,000+ filers initially. With the administration signaling broad compliance amid ongoing V.O.S. Selections appeal and phased rollout, traders weigh high likelihood of denial and actual payments by June 30 resolution against potential delays for smaller firms or manual processes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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