Trump administration's extension of sanctions targeting Russia's control of Crimea in February 2026 reinforces longstanding U.S. non-recognition of Moscow's 2014 annexation, driving trader consensus toward an 88% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite early 2025 reports of potential recognition floated in Ukraine peace frameworks—such as proposals during London and Paris talks—no formal action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act prohibiting such steps. Official State Department policy upholds Ukraine's territorial integrity, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or executive orders altering this stance, leaving slim odds for reversal absent major geopolitical shifts like a comprehensive ceasefire.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$19,459 거래량
$19,459 거래량
2026.12.31
$19,459 거래량
$19,459 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trump administration's extension of sanctions targeting Russia's control of Crimea in February 2026 reinforces longstanding U.S. non-recognition of Moscow's 2014 annexation, driving trader consensus toward an 88% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite early 2025 reports of potential recognition floated in Ukraine peace frameworks—such as proposals during London and Paris talks—no formal action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act prohibiting such steps. Official State Department policy upholds Ukraine's territorial integrity, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or executive orders altering this stance, leaving slim odds for reversal absent major geopolitical shifts like a comprehensive ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
거래량
$19,459종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trump administration's extension of sanctions targeting Russia's control of Crimea in February 2026 reinforces longstanding U.S. non-recognition of Moscow's 2014 annexation, driving trader consensus toward an 88% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite early 2025 reports of potential recognition floated in Ukraine peace frameworks—such as proposals during London and Paris talks—no formal action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act prohibiting such steps. Official State Department policy upholds Ukraine's territorial integrity, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or executive orders altering this stance, leaving slim odds for reversal absent major geopolitical shifts like a comprehensive ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$19,472종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration's extension of sanctions targeting Russia's control of Crimea in February 2026 reinforces longstanding U.S. non-recognition of Moscow's 2014 annexation, driving trader consensus toward an 88% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite early 2025 reports of potential recognition floated in Ukraine peace frameworks—such as proposals during London and Paris talks—no formal action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act prohibiting such steps. Official State Department policy upholds Ukraine's territorial integrity, with no recent diplomatic breakthroughs or executive orders altering this stance, leaving slim odds for reversal absent major geopolitical shifts like a comprehensive ceasefire.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문