Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a permanent peace agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 8 amid heightened military tensions, including US airstrikes and Iran's regional proxy actions. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's uranium enrichment suspension—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—full sanctions relief, reparations, and security guarantees for Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. In response, US Central Command initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating economic pressure as the ceasefire nears expiration around April 21. President Trump indicated a second round of Pakistan-mediated negotiations could resume within days, reflecting trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed conflict risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,632,764 거래량
2026.04.22
4월 22일
22%
4월 30일
38%
5월 31일
60%
6월 30일
74%
$7,632,764 거래량
4월 22일
$5,063,511 거래량
22%
4월 30일
$1,403,013 거래량
38%
5월 31일
$940,269 거래량
60%
6월 30일
$226,315 거래량
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a permanent peace agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 8 amid heightened military tensions, including US airstrikes and Iran's regional proxy actions. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's uranium enrichment suspension—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—full sanctions relief, reparations, and security guarantees for Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. In response, US Central Command initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating economic pressure as the ceasefire nears expiration around April 21. President Trump indicated a second round of Pakistan-mediated negotiations could resume within days, reflecting trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed conflict risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
거래량
$7,632,764종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a permanent peace agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 8 amid heightened military tensions, including US airstrikes and Iran's regional proxy actions. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's uranium enrichment suspension—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—full sanctions relief, reparations, and security guarantees for Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. In response, US Central Command initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating economic pressure as the ceasefire nears expiration around April 21. President Trump indicated a second round of Pakistan-mediated negotiations could resume within days, reflecting trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed conflict risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$7,632,764종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a permanent peace agreement, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 8 amid heightened military tensions, including US airstrikes and Iran's regional proxy actions. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's uranium enrichment suspension—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—full sanctions relief, reparations, and security guarantees for Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. In response, US Central Command initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating economic pressure as the ceasefire nears expiration around April 21. President Trump indicated a second round of Pakistan-mediated negotiations could resume within days, reflecting trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed conflict risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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