Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 12 has solidified trader consensus against a deal by May 31, with "No" implying 79.5% probability. Despite Iran's April 8 indication of willingness to transfer its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—verified by IAEA reports—key sticking points persist: Washington demands a 20-year enrichment ban, while Tehran insists on five years or retention rights, echoing Trump's "no enrichment" red line. Failed diplomacy, threats of Strait of Hormuz blockade, and a compressed timeline outweigh potential second-round talks, driving skepticism among traders wagering on stalled negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$2,738,426 거래량
$2,738,426 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$2,738,426 거래량
$2,738,426 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 12 has solidified trader consensus against a deal by May 31, with "No" implying 79.5% probability. Despite Iran's April 8 indication of willingness to transfer its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—verified by IAEA reports—key sticking points persist: Washington demands a 20-year enrichment ban, while Tehran insists on five years or retention rights, echoing Trump's "no enrichment" red line. Failed diplomacy, threats of Strait of Hormuz blockade, and a compressed timeline outweigh potential second-round talks, driving skepticism among traders wagering on stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$2,738,426종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 12 has solidified trader consensus against a deal by May 31, with "No" implying 79.5% probability. Despite Iran's April 8 indication of willingness to transfer its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—verified by IAEA reports—key sticking points persist: Washington demands a 20-year enrichment ban, while Tehran insists on five years or retention rights, echoing Trump's "no enrichment" red line. Failed diplomacy, threats of Strait of Hormuz blockade, and a compressed timeline outweigh potential second-round talks, driving skepticism among traders wagering on stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$2,738,431종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent collapse of marathon US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 12 has solidified trader consensus against a deal by May 31, with "No" implying 79.5% probability. Despite Iran's April 8 indication of willingness to transfer its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—verified by IAEA reports—key sticking points persist: Washington demands a 20-year enrichment ban, while Tehran insists on five years or retention rights, echoing Trump's "no enrichment" red line. Failed diplomacy, threats of Strait of Hormuz blockade, and a compressed timeline outweigh potential second-round talks, driving skepticism among traders wagering on stalled negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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