A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$112,638,018 거래량
2026.06.30
3월 31일
아니오
4월 15일
아니오
4월 18일
예
4월 21일
예
4월 30일
예
6월 30일
예
$112,638,018 거래량
3월 31일
$376,672 거래량
아니오
4월 15일
$7,833,258 거래량
아니오
4월 18일
$98,599,882 거래량
예
4월 21일
$695,526 거래량
예
4월 30일
$4,369,571 거래량
예
6월 30일
$763,110 거래량
예
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
거래량
$112,638,018종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$112,638,018종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문