Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14-15 marked a rare diplomatic breakthrough amid the 2026 Lebanon war, which resumed March 2 following Hezbollah rocket fire in support of Iran during the US-Iran conflict. Israel demands Hezbollah disarmament and border security enforcement per prior agreements, rejecting an immediate ceasefire despite US pressure for a possible one-week pause under security cabinet discussion. Lebanon seeks an end to airstrikes, which continue alongside Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel, fueling trader uncertainty. A US-Iran truce excluded Lebanon per Israeli insistence, leaving negotiations as the key near-term catalyst, though sticking points persist.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,379,655 거래량
2026.04.15
4월 15일
<1%
4월 30일
65%
6월 30일
80%
$11,379,655 거래량
4월 15일
$7,830,251 거래량
<1%
4월 30일
$2,791,329 거래량
65%
6월 30일
$385,655 거래량
80%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14-15 marked a rare diplomatic breakthrough amid the 2026 Lebanon war, which resumed March 2 following Hezbollah rocket fire in support of Iran during the US-Iran conflict. Israel demands Hezbollah disarmament and border security enforcement per prior agreements, rejecting an immediate ceasefire despite US pressure for a possible one-week pause under security cabinet discussion. Lebanon seeks an end to airstrikes, which continue alongside Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel, fueling trader uncertainty. A US-Iran truce excluded Lebanon per Israeli insistence, leaving negotiations as the key near-term catalyst, though sticking points persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
거래량
$11,379,655종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 제기 기간
최종
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14-15 marked a rare diplomatic breakthrough amid the 2026 Lebanon war, which resumed March 2 following Hezbollah rocket fire in support of Iran during the US-Iran conflict. Israel demands Hezbollah disarmament and border security enforcement per prior agreements, rejecting an immediate ceasefire despite US pressure for a possible one-week pause under security cabinet discussion. Lebanon seeks an end to airstrikes, which continue alongside Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel, fueling trader uncertainty. A US-Iran truce excluded Lebanon per Israeli insistence, leaving negotiations as the key near-term catalyst, though sticking points persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$11,379,655종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 제기 기간
최종
Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14-15 marked a rare diplomatic breakthrough amid the 2026 Lebanon war, which resumed March 2 following Hezbollah rocket fire in support of Iran during the US-Iran conflict. Israel demands Hezbollah disarmament and border security enforcement per prior agreements, rejecting an immediate ceasefire despite US pressure for a possible one-week pause under security cabinet discussion. Lebanon seeks an end to airstrikes, which continue alongside Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel, fueling trader uncertainty. A US-Iran truce excluded Lebanon per Israeli insistence, leaving negotiations as the key near-term catalyst, though sticking points persist.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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