Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$321,191 거래량
2026.06.30
어떤 미국 하원의원
9%
마르코 루비오
7%
JD 밴스
7%
미국 상원의원
7%
피트 헥셋
4%
제러드 쿠슈너
3%
벤야민 네타냐후
2%
도널드 트럼프
2%
$321,191 거래량
어떤 미국 하원의원
$66,435 거래량
9%
마르코 루비오
$16,459 거래량
7%
JD 밴스
$19,744 거래량
7%
미국 상원의원
$24,587 거래량
7%
피트 헥셋
$80,491 거래량
4%
제러드 쿠슈너
$12,295 거래량
3%
벤야민 네타냐후
$38,211 거래량
2%
도널드 트럼프
$62,969 거래량
2%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
거래량
$321,191종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$321,191종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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